Six months back I met a doctor, further to a hair fall crisis. It was in Feb mid of 2020. And a lot many tests were followed. Well I was not exempted even from an ECG. Everything was normal except thyroid functions. They were a little bit hyper active making the readings beyond measurable.
So medication started and review was fixed in the coming week. Medicines were given for a week only, as said by doctor.
The unwanted guest in scenes- Covid-19
And very soon the covid-19 pandemic appeared in the scenes. So my next visit got continuously postponed. So obviously medicines were discontinued.
Initially, as everyone I also thought this covid 19 as a two weeks thing. And now looking back, I could see how easily those two weeks expanded into six months.
The rising graph is not yet showing any flattening tendency. The unwanted guest is not willing to leave even after six months WHO declared Covid-19 as a pandemic.
Now the question is how many months more..?
So I did a simple mathematical analysis using the publicly available data and spiced it up with some plots in R framework (R is a statistical language). As per my analysis, progression of Covid-19 is slowing down with time since the very beginning itself. Okay, I know this may sound a little bit weird as you are seeing the rise in graphs for daily new cases. By progression, I meant the change over time. Yes, the change over time is actually not increasing, but decreasing.
I know it’s not wise to do a forecasting especially when there are too many factors at play. Still with my analysis, the extrapolated data shows that the pandemic will begin to taper down in most of India by a month (that is peak being in October 2020). (Well, my analysis was done typically for India and this forecasting is for an analysis purpose only, please don’t treat it as an established information.)
I will post the detailed forecasting report soon with more details on how long the crisis might prolong in India, by when India can get back on its feet, by when India can be fully freed of this pandemic etc… Stay tuned..
Lock down impact on my thyroid hormones
Oh, I forgot to mention about my hyper thyroid. Last week after tele-consulting the doctor, a blood test was taken and interestingly (yes, I meant fortunately) the results were all quite normal, that too with no medication. 🙂 Probably I should call it as a lock down impact on my thyroid hormones.
But I’m yet to solve the bundles of hair loss puzzle .. 🙁
Originally published at https://wordsandnotion.com on September 19, 2020.
